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Al-Qaeda

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (March 26 – April 2, 2025)

“World Jerusalem Day” rallies were held throughout Iran and in the countries of the “Shiite axis” on the last Friday of the month of Ramadan. The event was exploited by senior figures in Iran and the “resistance front” to emphasize support for the Palestinians and resistance to Israel; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson condemned Israel’s attack in Beirut and called on the international community to act to stop the Israeli attacks in Lebanon; Iran’s ambassador to Iraq made it clear that US President Trump’s demand to dismantle the pro-Iranian Iraqi militias or merge them into the Iraqi armed forces is unacceptable to Tehran. However, it was reported that the Shiite forces in Iraq agreed to discuss merging the militias under the “Popular Mobilization” framework. The Houthis reportedly established a new force called the Hassan Nasrallah Battalion to operate in Iraq; The Houthis claimed responsibility for two missile attacks against Israel. The IDF Spokesperson said that all the missiles were intercepted before they penetrated Israeli territory; The United States continued its attacks against Houthi military targets and reinforced its air forces in the region. The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks against the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea, claiming that American “aggression” does not affect them.
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Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s New Leader: From Jihadist to Stateman?

On December 8, 2024, rebels led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Muhammad al-Julani, captured Damascus and overthrew the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a 12-day military campaign, and al-Sharaa became the de facto ruler of Syria; Ahmed al-Sharaa's ideology changed throughout his life, transforming him from a youth raised in an upper-middle class family in Syria to a jihadist activist in the ranks of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq, and eventually to one of the prominent leaders of the rebellion against the Assad regime in Syria. The transformations were reflected in his positions regarding the concept of jihad, his public disassociation from al-Qaeda and ISIS, and changes in his attire and image both in Syria and toward the international community; This study deals with al-Sharaa, his life, the events that influenced him, and his beliefs and ideology as they evolved over more than two decades of activity within Salafi-jihadi movements and the struggle against the Syrian regime; In ITIC assessment, the ambivalence in al-Sharaa's positions and the changes in his conduct over the years were intended to ensure the survival of his organization but also indicated his ideological flexibility and political pragmatism. He is likely to continue presenting himself as a pragmatic figure to secure popular and international support for his emerging rule. However, it remains to be seen whether the ideological positions he developed as a Salafi-jihadi leader will be manifested in his role as the political leader of Syria, including his previously expressed aspiration to lead jihad to "liberate al-Aqsa."
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Fall of the Assad Regime) December 23 , 2024 – 1 January, 2025

The new leadership in Syria is consolidating its rule: it was agreed that all armed organizations would be dismantled and subordinated to the new Ministry of Defense, and a defense minister and general intelligence chief were appointed. Senior military ranks were awarded to commanders from Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other organizations which had contributed to the overthrow of the Assad regime, including foreign jihadist fighters. Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), met with foreign delegations which arrived in Damascus. He said presidential elections would be held in four years and reiterated his position that Syria would not pose a threat to any country. Violent clashes erupted between the new regime's security forces and Alawite residents over allegations that an Islamic extremist group had set fire to a shrine. The Damascus government pointed to Iran as instigating the riots with the objective of creating chaos in Syria. According to reports, IDF forces continued operating in villages within the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and five people were injured by gunfire during a demonstration. The new governor of Damascus said Syria did not seek to be an enemy of Israel. The editor of the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese daily newspaper admitted that Syria was no longer part of the struggle against Israel and was not expected to express solidarity with "the resistance." Reports indicated that Hamas was attempting to establish ties with the new Syrian regime and was preparing for a visit to Damascus. The United States and France attacked ISIS targets in Syria.
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) December 9 – 16 , 2024

The new transitional government in Syria, headed by Mohammad al-Bashir, began its activities after the transfer of powers from the last government of the al-Assad regime. Among its first decisions were the deployment of police forces in major cities and the prohibition of smoking and drinking alcohol; Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Shara continued to make conciliatory statements. He announced the dismantling of the security forces and the closure of prisons and emphasized the end of the Iranian presence in the country; The Turkish-backed rebel forces completed the takeover of Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Kurds expressed concern about the attacks against them and called for a meeting of all political forces in the country to formulate a unified vision; The IDF continued to operate against strategic weapons stockpiles and military infrastructure of the Syrian army throughout Syria and within the buffer zone in the Golan Heights. Ahmad al-Shara stressed that Israel’s actions could lead to escalation and that Syria has no intention of entering a new war; Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem expressed hope that the new regime in Damascus would not promote normalization with Israel and would continue to view it as an enemy; The US Secretary of State confirmed that the United States has maintained ties with HTS despite its designation as a terrorist organization. Russia has started reducing its forces in Syria and is seeking to secure an agreement to maintain its two major military bases in the country.  
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The Power Groups in Syria after the Fall of the Assad Regime

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwest Syria. Other groups, sponsored by Turkey, initiated the Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area, while another coalition of rebel organizations took control of southern Syria. On December 8, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime; The campaign was managed by three umbrella groups: the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army and the Southern Operations Room. Each was made up of organizations, units and political entities with ideological, religious and ethnic differences and varying interests; Also to be taken into account are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia led by Kurdish forces and supported by the United States, whose objective is to strengthen Kurdish control in northern Syria and which is currently in conflict with the new power structures in Syria; The factions which have taken control in Syria have yet to issue official statements regarding Israel, even in light of IDF strikes on strategic facilities across Syria and the seizure of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights; Despite the cooperation of revolutionary forces in overthrowing Assad's regime and statements from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) about his desire to establish a government representing all Syrians, the large number of groups and conflicting interests are likely to lead to internal conflicts and exacerbate the chaos within Syria. However, if the parties learn from mistakes made in other parts of the Middle East after the overthrow of authoritarian regimes, such as Iraq and Libya, and manage to find an inclusive formula which meets the interests of the various groups and communities, in ITIC assessment, in the long term opportunities exist for stabilization in Syria.
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The Iron Swords – The war in the south of Israel (Updated to 1 p.m., October 17, 2023)

The IDF continued its activity in the Gaza Strip, mainly by conducting airstrikes against terrorist targets of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Several thousand terrorist targets have been attacked since the beginning of the war. Using precision-guided munitions, Israeli Navy ships attacked Hamas military-terrorist targets from the sea. Two barrages were fired at the Jerusalem area during the opening of the Knesset's winter session. About 6,930 rockets have been fired at Israel since the beginning of the war.So far, more than 1,400 civilian and soldier deaths have been reported, and 199 civilian and soldier abductees are currently held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Since the beginning of the war, The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is worsening. Tensions continued mounting in northern Israel. Iran has ramped up its threatening messages, apparently concerned that an Israeli ground attack could challenge Hamas' survival. Iran does not necessarily regard Hezbollah as its only option for an attack on Israel and might prefer other options, such as activating the pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Syria or Iraq.
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Al-Qaeda

Al-Qaeda is a global Islamic terrorist organization founded by Palestinian terrorist operative Abdullah Azzam in 1988. Al-Qaeda originated in Afghanistan as an underground movement that operated against the Soviet occupation. Since its establishment, Al-Qaeda operated under the leadership and funding of Osama bin Laden. Al-Qaeda was officially defined as an organized entity in 1988 by its founder and first leader, Osama bin Laden. Since being defined as an organized entity, Al-Qaeda has become a global Islamic terrorist organization operating in many arenas around the world. Ideologically, Al-Qaeda relies on the Salafi school of Islam, viewing jihad as the personal duty of every Muslim.

Al-Qaeda does not operate in a clear hierarchical framework, but rather as a confederation of terrorist organizations that carry out the organization’s ideology and tactics. Osama bin Laden served as a source of inspiration and guidance for carrying out terrorist activity. The organization also provides various types of assistance and support to terrorist organizations that advocate global jihad around the world.

Al-Qaeda was behind a series of showcase attacks against the United States, the most prominent of which was the attack on the World Trade Center in New York on September 11, 2001. Al-Qaeda’s activities also included harming the civilian population and damaging the holy sites of various religions. After a prolonged manhunt, Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed by US Army forces on May 2, 2011. He was replaced by his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian who was also one of the founders of Al-Qaeda.

In recent years, Al-Qaeda’s center of power in Afghanistan and Pakistan has grown weaker. At the same time, local networks affiliated with Al-Qaeda in various Muslim countries have grown stronger, including Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen; Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the Fateh al-Sham Front in Syria.